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Intel 945 chipset not stimulate DDR2 SDRAM demand

Disregarding Intel rolls out 945-series chipsets and may phase out 915's, DDR2 SDRAM demand is not going to be stimulated over the next three months upon the price and performance difference between them.

Intel was reportedly to opt out the entry-level chipset market in order to shift focus on the high-margin notebook-use chip production. Along with the 845- and 865-series chipsets, chipsets for the new generation PCI Express and 915PL/GL chipsets for socket LGA 775 Pentium 4 CPUs are also said to be phased out. Although Intel had reiterated that it is still proceeding product mix reshuffling rather than opt out of the market, does Intel's move imply any potential demand for DDR2 SDRAM?

Tracking Intel's history practices, its move is actually not surprising. With reference to the history product roadmap, Intel had reduced capacities of DDR SDRAM supported 8xx and some 9xx chipsets (845, 855, 865, 915PL/GL) in order to stimulate PC OEMs and first-tier motherboard makers shift adopting the DDR2 SDRAM supported 915 series chipsets (915G/P/GV) before. However, Intel's goals were being upset as 915G/P/GV series chipsets could support both DDR and DDR2 SDRAM, which thereby did not arouse much demand for shifting to DDR2 SDRAM adoption.

The chip giant now seems aiming to achieve its goal by skipping cutting 915-series chipset capacity but rolling out the DDR2 SDRAM supported 945 chipsets (945G/P/GV) during May to substitute 915-series chipsets. As time proceeds to the third quarter, Intel directly informed its downstream motherboard vendors and clients about its scheduled suspension of 915PL/GL chipsets in the fourth quarter. Together with the goal of shifting to high-margin notebook use chipsets production, the motivation of encouraging DDR2 SDRAM as mainstream memory standard is also believed as another pushing factor. Although Intel is aggressively pushing its goal, no massive migration to DDR2 SDRAM supported 915 series chipset was found at the market. With detail examination of the present market situation, we believe that Intel's moves could hardly boost DDR2 SDRAM demand in the near term.



In the perspective of PC OEMs and first tier motherboard makers, they are open to the choice of other 915 chipsets (915G/P/GV) under the same family as these chipsets could support both DDR and DDR2 SDRAM. Even worrying the US$10 price difference may suppress margins, motherboard makers could source alternative from other chipset makers such as the SiS661FX from SiS. For the mid- to high-range chipsets 915PL/GL, even Intel suspends the production in the coming quarter, downstream customers must have already restock in prior, thus would not raise much demand at all.


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Disregarding the reducing options which motherboard makers and downstream customers open to, demand for DDR2 SDRAM is unlikely to pick up upon Intel's moves over the next three months because the performance of present mainstream DDR2 supported chipset and DDR2 SDRAM is still fall behind DDR chipset and DDR SDRAM.

The price difference between 945 and 915 chipsets also constrain 945 chipset to enjoy any side benefit upon Intel's mid- to high-range chipset production adjustment. Although the performance leap of 945 chipset which built on DDR2 chipset and DDR2 SDRAM over 915 chipset is obvious, demand is not going to be stimulated as long as the price gap still persists.

The story of rambus and DDR seems will happen again.
Intel can't support customers DDR2 chipsets for mainstream or cost effective market. SiS may gain the market of low cost DDR2 chipset.

And the transition delay of DDR to DDR2 seems will cause pain to DRAM makers.

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