DRAMeXchange: DDR3 2GB 1H’Oct contract price are reaching U$30 and likely going down
According to DRAMeXchange, the research dept. of Trendforce, 1H’Oct contract price dropped 6%-9% while DDR3 2GB contract “High” decline to US$33 from US$35 mainly for Korean vendors. Contract “Low” dropped 9.1% to US$30 from US$33 due to the Japanese and Taiwanese vendors under heavy sales pressure. DDR2 contract price decline along with the DDR3 that pricing gap is almost disappeared.
In the Spot market, Inventory replenishment effect warms up in China market after China National Holiday that module houses adjusted up DDR2 module price. DDR2 1Gb eTT chip rose 4.5% to US$1.86 from US$1.78. Given the floppy demand, DDR3 1Gb eTT chip price slightly decline 1.15% to US$1.72. However, we see long term spot market pricing trend will be weak impact by the contract market.
Although September NB shipment increases 12% MoM better than our expectation and 4Q10 shipment will likely grow 2%-3%, PC-OEMs do not intend to increase the content and less help on output digestion. With coming slow season and output increase from DRAM vendors, over-supply condition will be serious. We expect 2H’Oct. DDR3 2GB contract price will fall below US$30 while DDR3 1Gb chip price will likely drop below US$1.5 in 4Q10.
DRAMeXchange expect DRAM chip price will likely reach to the bottom at 1Q11 end or early 2Q11 with the help content growth from low price DRAM chip and PC shipment for Chinese New Year and new models, the market is expect to be back to disciplined balance.