2H’Nov. DDR3 2GB contract price declined 12%, DDR3 1Gb is closed to US$1.2
According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, 2H’Nov. DDR3 2GB “Average” contract price declined 12% to US$22 from US$25 while “Low” contract price dropped 12.5% to US$21. In 4Q10, DRAM vendors continued increasing output supply but PC demand is shrinking month by month. The over-supply has been accelerated and resulting in the deeper price cut from DRAM vendors at the purpose of inventory digestion. DRAM contract price has declined 30% QoQ in 4Q10 and we expect DDR3 1Gb contract price will decline around 40% in 4Q10.
Spot market is also under the low volume and declining price pattern. DDR3 1Gb eTT chip price dropped 5% to US$1.32 but DDR2 1Gb eTT average price sustain in the stable level given the limited supply. But still the DDR2 1Gb eTT price mildly decline to US$1.44. Due to the unsatisfactory yield rate from Taiwanese vendors, some low-yield rate or less than 1333Mhz DDR3 chip are raising in spot maket that the low-yield 1Gb eTT chip is closed to US$1.
We expect 1H11 DRAM market will be still over-supply. Facing the pressure on cost, those DRAM vendors who can’t lower the cost effectively will be struggling more. Samsung will strengthen leadership in terms of cost structure and market share given the raising CAPEX and 35nm migration. Samsung is expected to gain over 40% market share in DRAM and will still remain profit under dropping DRAM price.
DRAMeXchange expect DRAM price is likely to bottom up from the end of 2Q11 if DRAM content can be boosted up from dropping DRAM price. US$1-$1.2 can be reachable in 2H11. If not, DRAM vendors will accelerate the capacity cut for lower DRAM price.