TrendForce: 4Q12 Branded NAND Flash Supplier Ranking
Affected by the slow recovery of the global economy, NAND Flash market demand has been mostly stagnant for the first three quarters of 2012. However, with the revival of the replenishment demand following the release of new smartphone and tablet models in 4Q, and with Toshiba's production cuts gradually taking effect, the supply-demand situation within the NAND Flash market has slightly tightened throughout 4Q12. As a result, during the fourth quarter, the NAND Flash ASP has been roughly equivalent to that of the previous quarter, whereas bit shipments from branded NAND Flash suppliers grew by around 15% QoQ. The total 4Q12 revenue of the branded NAND Flash is approximately $5.304 billion USD, which is roughly 14.6% QoQ higher than the amount in 3Q12.
In terms of the 2012 fourth quarter sales rankings, Samsung remains in first place with a revenue of $2.054 billion USD, about 38.7% market share; Toshiba is at second place with $1.466 billion USD, 27.6% of the market; SK Hynix is third with $673 million, 12.7% of the market; Micron is fourth with $655 million, 12.3% of the market; Intel is fifth with 455 million, 8.6% of the market.
For the overall 2012 sales rankings, Samsung holds first place with a revenue of $7.286 billion USD, which is about 38.2% market share; Toshiba is at second place with $5.322 billion USD, 27.9% of the market; Micron is third with $2.648 billion USD, 13.9% of the market; SK Hynix is fourth with $2.261 billion USD, 11.9% of the market; Intel is fifth with 1.545 billion, 8.1% of the market. The total 2012 revenue from branded NAND Flash suppliers is 19.062 billion USD, about a 6.6 decrease YoY.
Despite being affected by the appreciation of the Korean won, with the revitalized demand for Samsung’s embedded products and SSDs from the system product OEM orders, and with the NAND Flash market’s supply-demand balance returning, the bit shipment for the fourth quarter of 2012 has increased by over 20% QoQ. As ASP dropped by below 10% QoQ compared to last quarter, fourth quarter revenue has grown by 12.8% QoQ, arriving at 2.054 billion USD and giving Samsung 38.7% market share. Samsung predicts that for 1Q13, the demand for its system products will be negatively affected by the effects of the traditional off-peak quarter. The bit output growth, as such, is projected to be less than 10% QoQ. While Samsung’s NAND Flash products are primarily produced using the 21nm process, in 1H13, the company will continue to develop the 1xnm process for its embedded products and SSDs.
Although Toshiba implemented a 30% production cut, output utilization rate climbed in 4Q12 thanks to the increased OEM orders from system product clients. Because of the depreciation of the Japanese yen and the increasing use of the 19nm process technology, fourth quarter ASP is stable and bit shipment has shown a growth compared to the previous quarter. 4Q12 revenue, likewise, increased 21.1%QoQ, arriving at 1.466 billion USD and giving Toshiba 27.6% market share. As Toshiba expects its system product clients to be affected by the traditional effects of the off-peak season, the company is likely to stick to using its flexible capacity adjustment strategies. Throughout 1H13, the company will also continue with its efforts to develop the 1xnm NAND Flash process technology.
Despite the appreciation of the won, factors such as the increased OEM orders for embedded products, along with the revitalized demand from within China’s white-box smartphone market, have contributed to SK Hynix’s 19% QoQ bit shipment growth and the 6% QoQ increase in ASP. 4Q12 revenue has risen by 25.9% QoQ, resulting in $673 million USD revenue and 12.7% market share. Given the effects of the traditional off-peak quarter, SK Hynix anticipates 1Q13 bit output to only climb by around 5% QoQ. At the moment, the company primarily uses the 20nm process technology, although it expects to begin producing products using 1xnm process during 1H13.
Given Micron’s continuous efforts to raise the proportion of revenue generated by embedded and SSD products, the company’s ASP has increased by approximately 8% from the previous quarter. Bit shipment, however, decreased by approximately 10% QoQ as the proportion of products produced by the new 20nm process ended up being lower than expected. 4Q12 revenue, as such, fell by around 1.7%, ending at $655 million USD and giving Micron an approximate 12.3% market share. With the proportion of new 20nm products set to increase on a gradual basis throughout 1H13, bit output is projected to increase by over 10% QoQ. On the other hand, with the supply-demand situation in the NAND Flash market improving, Micron expects 1Q13 ASP to decline by less than 10% QoQ. In the future, the company is expected to increase the proportion of revenue made from its system product clients.
Because of the increased proportion of revenue generated by SSDs during the fourth quarter, and because of the return of the NAND Flash market to a healthy state, Intel’s ASP has remained steady, whereas its bit shipment grew by around 15% QoQ. For the fourth quarter, Intel’s revenue has climbed by around 15.2% QoQ, ending at $455 million USD and giving the company 8.6% market share. In 1H13, Intel will continue to increase the proportion of SSD and mSATA products, and put greater emphasis on the new 20nm process technology.
With warming inventory build-ahead from robust OEM demand and balanced market dynamics contributed from Toshiba capacity reduction, 4Q12 ASP was steadily stabilized. Also the bit shipment was driven by demand from smartphone and tablet. 4Q12 NAND Flash market revenue increased 14.6% QoQ to US$5.304bn that turn down the consensus on slow 4Q12 NAND Flash market.