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【Market View】TrendForce: NAND Flash Price Surge and Steady System Product Demand in Q2 Results in 11.2% QoQ Revenue Increase for Brand Suppliers
Published Aug.06 2013,16:11 PM (GMT+8)
TrendForce: NAND Flash Price Surge and Steady System Product Demand in Q2 Results in 11.2% QoQ Revenue Increase for Brand Suppliers
As NAND flash contract price continued rising and shipments of system products such as eMMC and SSD remained steady in the second quarter, NAND flash brand suppliers’ total revenue amounted to US$5.775 billion, an 11.2% QoQ and over 30% YoY increase. With the stabilization of the NAND flash industry, TrendForce is optimistic on long-term industry growth.
Looking at the quarterly sales ranking for branded NAND Flash manufacturers, Samsung came in first again with US$2184 million, 37.8% market share; Toshiba took second place with US$1,659 million, 28.7% of the market; SK Hynix came in third with US$840 million, 14.5% of the market. Micron was fourth at US$678 million; and Intel placed fifth with US$413 million, 7.2% of the market.
Benefitting from stable growth of smartphone and tablet shipments, strong SSD demand, as well as increased memory card and UFD capacity, Samsung’s SSD, eMMC, and eMCP market share increased. The supplier also leads the industry with TLC-based SSD and is migrating from 21nm to 19nm process technology.
Samsung’s second quarter bit shipment increased by 5-10% QoQ, while average selling price dropped less than 5%. Thus, the manufacturer’s second quarter NAND flash revenue increased by 12.9% QoQ to US$2.18 billion, keeping its market share at 37.8%. Samsung projects a 10% QoQ increase in bit shipment volume in the third quarter. As the manufacturer continues to expand on the SSD market, increasing the proportion of 19nm system products, continued NAND flash revenue growth is expected.
As a result of rising NAND flash prices, depreciation of the Japanese yen, and Toshiba’s increasing eMMC and SSD market share, the manufacturer’s NAND flash revenue increased by 10.6% QoQ to US$1.659 billion. With the NAND flash industry making a dramatic recovery, Toshiba has set its target memory revenue increase at 12% for this year. Since the manufacturer returned to fully loaded capacity mid-second quarter, TrendForce forecasts Toshiba will see a 9-10% QoQ increase in third quarter shipment volume. Additionally, the supplier is accelerating technology migration to the 19nm-next-generation process.
According to SK Hynix’s second quarter financial report, the manufacturer’s NAND flash revenue reached US$840 million, a 31.3% QoQ increase, making SK Hynix the supplier with the highest revenue growth for the quarter. Furthermore, the manufacturer edged out Micron for third place with 14.6% market share, mainly attributed to strong eMMC and eMCP shipments. China’s rapidly growing smartphone market has contributed significantly to SK Hynix’s NAND flash revenue, pushing its bit shipment volume growth to 29%, while ASP also rose, by 5%. Third quarter bit shipment volume is expected to increase by 20% QoQ.
Micron’s NAND flash revenue fell by 4.5% QoQ to US$678 million, mainly due to the supplier agreement between Micron and Intel; Micron sold US$258 million to Intel in the second quarter, up from $160 million in previous quarter. Furthermore, Micron’s ASP increased by 8% QoQ as NAND flash prices rose. However, as the proportion of specialty products increased and the manufacturer’s migration to the 20nm process is slightly lagging, average cost also increased by 1%. In addition to SSD revenue accounting for nearly 25% of NSG, embedded specialty NAND flash in the ESG department and eMMC in the WSG department also show strong growth potential; Micron’s NAND flash product line is becoming more complete.
As the enterprise-grade SSD market is growing significantly with the popularity of cloud computing, Intel is experiencing strong demand for corporate-level SSD orders. However, restricted by limited capacity and a relatively slower migration to the 20nm process, the supplier’s second-quarter NAND flash revenue only increased by 1.2% QoQ, arriving at US$413 million. Intel’s bit shipment volume rose by 5% QoQ. TrendForce expects that as the manufacturer’s 20nm output grows, product performance improves, and client testing of 20nm SSD increases in the third quarter, Intel will see an improvement in corporate SSD shipments.
As NAND flash prices and system product shipments increased in the second quarter, brand suppliers’ revenue rose by 11.2% QoQ, arriving at US$5.78 billion. Worth noting, the total represents a YoY increase of more than 30%, indication that the NAND flash industry is back on the right track. Price fluctuations are no longer as severe, and SSD, eMCP, and eMMC will likely be in demand for years to come. With overall revenue on the rise, TrendForce is optimistic towards the future of the NAND flash industry.