Brisk Global MB shipments in 1Q07
In the wake of the delayed MB purchases in 4Q06, global MB shipments for 1Q07 reached 40M; a QoQ decline of 6.8% and a YoY increase of 6%. Compared to the usual 10% quarterly drop during the turn of the year, the 6% decline in 1Q07 was milder. The smaller decline was mainly attributed to the lower shipment base in 4Q06, along with consumers holding off their purchases until 1Q07.
The rebound in Taiwan's MB shipments was in line with previous forecasts following the Chinese New Year Holidays. Due to the fewer working days, February experienced the lowest monthly shipment figures. They began to improve in March, as they returned to the shipments levels seen in January. In general, the performance in 1Q07 was better than in early 2007.
By analyzing the different market regions, the turnaround in Europe and US in 1Q07 were the two main driving forces behind the uptick in global MB shipments. This was more notable in Europe, as consumer demand grew more rapid. The delayed launch of Microsoft's Vista OS Home edition to 1Q07 did indeed impact the MB sales in 4Q06.
In contrast to retailers, OEM clients registered a larger drop in shipments, which was mainly attributed to--- (1) Amid a shortage of AMD CPUs, demand was sluggish in the retail market for 4Q06. (2) The release of Vista at the end of January helped spur more consumer demand. The lower shipment base thus led to stronger 1Q07 shipments in the retail market.
As the MB industry entered into the slow seasonality of 2Q07, shipments in April and May have been trending downwards. For 2Q07, MB shipments are projected to hit 37M, a YoY growth of 12.9%, and a sequential decline of 6.5%. For 2007, they are forecast to reach 164M, a YoY growth of 8.0%, and a slight increase from the previous quarter. The rise stems from the relatively strong performance in Europe and US in 1Q07.
MB vendors strives to achieve strong growth in 2H07
By Tier 1 MB suppliers, Asus has set a 60M shipment target for 2007, a 9% YoY growth. Shipment forecasts for 1Q07 stands at 14-15M, a slight increase compared to the same period of last year. A stronger business growth is projected for 2H07.
Elitegroup has set a shipment goal of 27M for 2007, a 13% YoY growth, which is lower than the 20% YoY increase for 2006. The decline is due to the maturation of its key Chinese market. Its shipments for 1Q07 should exceed 6M, a YoY growth rate of nearly 10%.
For 2007, Gigabyte's shipment target stands at 17M, a YoY growth of 10%. However, from its actual achievement rate of 85-90% in 2006, and YoY shipment drop in 1Q07, Gigabyte faces an uphill struggle in 2H07.
The 2007 shipment goal for MSI amounts to 20M, a huge jump from the 16M registered last year. The estimated shipment volume for 1Q07 is approximately 4M. Like its Asus and Gigabyte counterparts, 2H07 will be an important time frame for MSI in reaching its 2007 target. From the current shipment performance of Tier 1 makers, intense competition is expected in the DT consumer market, as Vista becomes more prevalent in 2H07.
