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【Market View】1Q11 Sales Ranking of Branded NAND Flash Makers

Published May.10 2011,10:36 AM (GMT+8)

1Q11 Sales Ranking of Branded NAND Flash Makers

Given the Toshiba/SanDisk power outage in mid-December, NAND Flash supply was impacted in early 1Q11. With the dynamics of 1.) Inventory replenishment for Chinese New Year holiday, 2.) Slow season for retail memory card and UFD market from 2HFebruary, 3.) Apple launched iPad2 in early March and 4.) an uncertainty toward mid-term supply condition after Japan earthquake in mid-March, we see the dramatic pricing fluctuation that 1Q11 branded NAND Flash ASP(average selling price) declined about 3% QoQ(Quarter on Quarter). However, despite of sluggish retail memory card and UFD, the demand from OEM orders of some other tablet PC and Smartphone makers grows steady. Thus, 1Q11 branded NAND Flash bit shipment growth is about 13% QoQ and revenue is up 9.9% QoQ to US$5.36bn.

From the 1Q11 branded NAND Flash vendors’ market share, Samsung remained the leader with a 36.2% market share and US$1.94bn revenue while Toshiba came in second with a 35.1% market share and US$1.88bn sales. Micron ranked at the third with an 11.4% shares and US$610mn in revenue, followed lastly by Hynix with 10.7% shares and US$574mn sales. Intel tapped in the fifth place with a 6.6% shares and US$355mn revenue.

1Q11 Operation Analysis of branded NAND Flash makers

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.

Offset by the strong demands from some Smartphone and tablet PC customers, impact from the softened channel memory card and UFD market is eased. 1Q11 bit shipment growth is above 20% QoQ while ASP declined approximately 10%. Along with the Korean won appreciation, 1Q11 revenue increased about 8.8% QoQ to US$1.94bn with 36.2% market share. Samsung indicated the stable OEM orders from system product customers will be sustained in 2Q11 while retail market is still weak. 2Q11 bit shipment growth will be over 30% QoQ. However, the dynamics in 2Q11 makes the price hard to determine. Samsung will focus on 27nm node product portion enhancement and 21nm migration in the 2H11 along with the system product customer portion for new embedded products and SSD.

Toshiba Corp.

Impacted by the power outage in early December, the output in January and February is limited in 2011. Despite of the slight price decline and mild bit shipment growth, OEM orders from some stable Smartphone and tablet PC customers and strategic memory card partners help the 1Q11 revenue to grow about 8% to US$1.88bn with 35.1% market share. Toshiba will continue to raise portion in the 24nm node products and migration to the 19nm in 2H11. The 300mm Fab5, JV with SanDisk, will dedicate to operation from 2H11 while about 50% of new capacity will be acquired by Toshiba. Meanwhile, Toshiba will also strengthen the sales portion from system product customers with embedded products and SSD.

Micron Technology Inc.

Benefited from certain system product OEM customer, self-owned Lexar distribution channels and synergy from Numonyx acquisition in embedded product business, quarterly bit shipment grows about 20% QoQ, partially offset by price decline, while revenue increases about 12.1% QoQ to US$610mn with 11.4% market share. Since 25nm node has turned to the mainstream status in 1Q11, Micron expects bit output growth for next quarter will be up to 10% QoQ. With the stable demand from system product customers and uncertainty toward supply after earthquake, Micron indicates ASP will likely to slightly increase in next quarter. Meanwhile, the 300mm Singapore fab, joint venture with Intel, will likely be enhanced to 60K pieces per month by the year end. Micron will also raising the sales exposure in new embedded products for the emerging smart mobile devices and SSD.

Hynix Semiconductor Co., Ltd.

In 1Q11, Hynix offset the softened retail memory card & UFD demand by system product portion enhancement. That is, 1Q11 bit shipment growth is about 15% QoQ while ASP remains flat. 1Q11 revenue increases about 12.5% QoQ to US$574mn and a 10.7% market share. Hynix expected the strong OEM demand from some Smartphone and tablet PC makers will help 2Q11 bit shipment growth to increase more than 30% QoQ. Around 5% QoQ ASP decline is forecasted given the tighter supply after earthquake may help to ease the slow season impact of retail memory card and pan-drive in 2Q11. Hynix will continue focus on 26nm node portion enhancement and the new 20mn migration in 2H11. Also, Hynix will focus on the embedded products and new SSD to increase the share of system product customers.

Intel Corporation

Benefited from the raising SSD sales on ASP and bit shipment growth, 1Q11 revenue increased about 18.3% QoQ to US$355mn with a 6.6% market share. In 1Q11 IM Flash leads other vendors in 25nm 64Gb TLC and launched the 25nm SSD in the consideration of lowering the cost. The Singapore joint venture has already joined operation in 1H11, Intel is expected to acquire a less than 20% of new capacity. In 2H11, Intel will launch new 20nm process technology products and continue the efforts in raising sales portion from system product customers.