DRAM spot pricing sustained its stable trend last week with limited fluctuation recorded. During the week July 22-28, DRAMeXchange records that price of 512Mb eTT was stabilized at US$0.86. Price of 1Gb eTT has appreciated by 1.1% from US$1.80 to US$1.82. In the branded segment, price drops of both 512Mb and 1Gb parts are kept at ~1% range, with the former closed at US$0.94 and the later at US$1.94.
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DRAM contract price showed signs of bottoming out in April, with a strong rebound soon followed in May. Price of 1GB part has surged by 30% from US$17.50 in April to US$22 in July. Spot price of the same-density 667MHz part, however, has dipped by approximately 9% from US$2.16 to US$1.97 in the same period.
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DRAM transaction and pricing were being discouraged after price of DDR2 eTT (both 512Mb and 1Gb) posted a sharp decline during July 7-11. DRAMeXchange records that prices of 512Mb and 1Gb have been dropped by 6.2% and 5.6%, respectively, during July 1-15. In the branded segment, prices of 512Mb 667MHz and 1Gb have been also dropped by 2.9% and 5.9%, respectively, in the same period.
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In the DRAM industry, traditional ArF dry lithography equipment is still the mainstream fabrication tool, with its physical limit being identified at 65nm. This implies that for any design geometry that is smaller than 65nm, shift to immersion tool is necessary. (Note: Immersion tool utilizes water to replace air as media in between lithography lens and wafer surface for circuitry patterning. Since water delivers a higher refraction rate, smaller linewidth resulted thus breaks physical limit.) Vast capex required for process node advancement, especially procurement of expensive immersion tool, is a big challenge for those DRAM makers who are still bleeding in red.
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A low transaction volume during seasonal downturn is normal, but a divergent price trend in two market places is indeed rare. spot price of eTT 1Gb dropped by 8.4% in two weeks’ time, down from the high-level US$2.15 in mid June to US$1.97 on June 30. A divergent price trend is observed in DRAM contract and spot market. While DRAM contract price is trending up steadily amid tight supply, the downward spot price trend only reverse to a flat trend last week after experienced consecutive drops since mid June.
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A dismal DRAM spot price is observed last week due to: 1, PC shipments likely to fail expectation in 2Q; 2, flurry of speculations about possible circulation of defective Samsung chips at spot market. Magnitude of price drop was relatively sharp at 5%, with price of DDR2 eTT 1Gb once dropped below US$2.
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DRAM transaction remains slow in the spot market last week. As both demand and supply volume reduced, a mild price decline is observed, with price of DDR2 eTT 1Gb maintained at US$2.10 range. DRAM spot prices are expected to have a mild consolidation in the near term, but the downside should be limited. DRAMeXchange believes spot pricing should go steadily up in 3Q.
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Despite a low volume transaction atmosphere persisted last week, spot price of eTT DDR2 appreciated by ~5% after a Korean maker said to have reclaimed those defective DRAM chips from OEM customers. Even without strong actual demand in the spot market right now, industry players generally think this may cause short term impact to the supply. With low downside risk of DRAM price and the upcoming hot season, speculating buying started coming back.
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DRAM spot price trend was still weak last week, with price fluctuation for both eTT and branded DDR2 remained limited. Price of 512Mb DDR2 was flat at US$0.98 and 1Gb was up 1.5% at US$2.01 during May 27-June 2. Whereas for the branded segment, price of 512Mb DDR2 667MHz was flat at US$1.02 and 1Gb was down 0.9% at US$2.13 in the same period.
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DRAM spot price trend did not very much affected by the Hynix China fab power outage incident. Prices generally stayed flat, instead of an expected upward in a noticeable fashion. Despite there still existed appreciation, magnitude of growth was limited. In the eTT segment, prices of 512Mb and 1Gb dropped by a respective 2.9% and 1.0% to US$1.0 and US$1.98 during May 20-26. Whereas for the branded segment, prices of 512Mb 667MHz stayed flat at US$1.04 and 1Gb 667MHz up by a mere 0.9% to US$2.17 in the same period.
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