CSP In-House ASIC Boom Drives MLCC Specification Concentration; Structural Shortages of High-End Specialty MLCCs May Emerge in 2H26, Says TrendForce

According to TrendForce’s latest MLCC industry research, the ongoing AI arms race among global CSPs is accelerating the adoption of in-house ASIC accelerators, which increasingly rely on small-form-factor, high-capacitance, high-temperature-resistant MLCCs. As such, demand is rapidly concentrating on a limited number of premium specifications. However, with supplier capacity expansion lagging behind demand growth, the risk of structural shortages in the second half of 2026 is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

TrendForce notes that next-generation AI accelerator platforms are undergoing frequent design modifications during the final qualification stage, resulting in substantial increases in high-end MLCC content per board. For example, AMD replaced all aluminum electrolytic and tantalum capacitors in the bill of materials (BOM) for its MI450 platform with MLCCs during validation.

As a result, usage of 47μF 2.5V X6S 0402 MLCCs surged from 1,440 units per board to 10,544 units, representing a 632% increase. Similarly, demand for 100μF 4V X6S 0805 MLCCs on NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform rose from 320 units per board to 500 units.Entering 2H26, major ASIC platforms, including Google TPU V8t/i, AWS Trainium4, and Meta MTIA 400/450, are expected to ramp production, pushing MLCC demand to a new peak.

Supply growth is struggling to keep up with this surge in demand. Murata began mass production of advanced MLCC products, including 47μF 2.5V X6S 0402 and 100μF 2.5V X6S 0603 components, at the end of 2025. Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) followed with volume production in March 2026, while Taiyo Yuden and Kyocera have also expanded output. However, these specifications remain highly challenging to manufacture, and yield rates across the industry continue to face significant hurdles, limiting effective expansion.Furthermore, Murata’s new Izumo facility is not expected to reach full production capacity until 2027, making it unlikely to provide meaningful relief during the current demand cycle.

Signs of tightening supply are already becoming visible. The book-to-bill (BB) ratios of major Japanese and Korean suppliers have risen steadily since April 2026, while lead times for certain high-capacitance X6S products have extended from eight weeks to as long as twenty weeks.

Leading CSPs that have already secured long-term supply agreements (LTAs) are expected to receive priority allocation. In contrast, ODMs and system vendors that have not yet locked in supply commitments may face both spot-market price premiums and shipment delays.

TrendForce expects multiple demand drivers to converge between late third quarter and early fourth quarter, potentially transforming what has thus far been a latent supply risk into a tangible market shortage. ODMs are therefore advised to accelerate strategic inventory buildup during the third quarter and raise safety stock levels in preparation for potential supply disruptions in the fourth quarter.